About the teams
The Economics Group leads HM Treasurys analysis of developments in the UK economy and advises ministers on the implications for the Governments economic strategy. It provides expert economic analysis and advice for Ministers. The Groups data hub is transforming how the Treasury uses data across its entire business. The Group collaborates with external experts on the UK economy, including the Bank of England, Office for Budget Responsibility and leading academics. Economics Group provides support for the UK Governments economic and social research professions, including running centralised recruitment and the annual conferences.
The Structural Economics team (roles on labour markets and supply-side growth) is at the core of the Treasurys function as an economics Ministry, providing economic analysis, briefing and policy advice on the issues facing the UK economy. We play a central role in analysing developments in the economy and risks to the outlook. The team leads on our macroeconomic advice on labour market policy; regional analysis; the supply side of the economy; and human capital and migration; climate economics and general equilibrium modelling.
Macroeconomic Conditions and Risks (inflation role) is a friendly and open team working across the Economics Group and the Treasury more broadly: providing analysis, advice and briefing to Ministers on economic developments, particularly GDP and inflation, economic risks, the near-term outlook and macroeconomic narrative; leading on the UKs sovereign credit rating and management of the regular IMF and OECD surveillance of the UK economy; representing the UK in G20 macroeconomic discussions; and leading the Treasurys relationship with the ONS. The team prepares regular updates on the macroeconomy for the Chancellor, presents economic updates to the PM, organises internal State of the Economy meetings and leads on the presentation of the governments economic narrative in external fora.
Job descriptions
This is a fantastic opportunity to lead some of the Treasurys key cross-cutting analysis to help shape economic policy and improve lives. These are three high profile roles within Treasurys Economics Group, working closely with other teams across HMT, and with a wide range of external experts including Bank of England, the OBR, and the ONS. All involve creating and deploying high-impact analysis and evidence to improve economic policy decisions affecting people across the UK, and shape the government's economic narrative.
All roles involve extensive leadership and working flexibly as part of a friendly, inclusive and high-performing team where we support each other to develop ourselves and our positive contribution to society. At times this may include changes to responsibilities to respond to HMT priorities. Some roles include some early starts (6.45am for data releases, ~ once a month) and peak periods which are accommodated with time off through HMTs flexible working policy. Flexible working patterns and professional development are supported and encouraged. You can submit one application to be considered for any, or all, of these three roles. You will have the opportunity to rank your preferences.
Head of Inflation (G7)
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Lead HMTs analysis of inflation and cost of living including overall narrative, outlook and risks, providing timely advice to Ministers and senior officials and overseeing briefing for key data releases.
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Own and develop HMTs short-term inflation forecasting framework (STIF), modelling, judgement and policy insight to support decision-making.
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Deliver high-impact analysis and policy development to inform fiscal and economic policy, including assessing the inflationary effects of Budget measures, options to improve the cost of living, and other policy interventions.
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Maintain and enhance inflation evidence, modelling tools and analytical workflows, driving continuous improvements to capability and insight. Build strong relationships with key external partners. To strengthen HMTs understanding of prices and inflation statistics and inform longer-term developments in inflation data and policy.
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Provide outstanding line management for one SEO economist and one EO economist, and work flexibly along other G7s in the branch including the Head of GDP and the Head of Economic narrative, covering for each other as needed.
Economic adviser, labour markets (G7)
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Shape the Treasurys understanding of some of the most significant labour market challenges facing the UK. The role offers the opportunity to work on some of the highest-profile labour market issues facing the Government - recent areas of focus have included health-related inactivity, youth unemployment, National Living Wage policy, pension policy, public sector pay and labour market participation.
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Lead analysis of labour market developments, drawing insights from data and evidence to understand trends in employment, inactivity, wages and participation, and ensuring ministers, senior officials and policy teams have access to timely, relevant and insightful evidence to support decision-making.
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Shape policy development across government, working closely with policy teams and analytical colleagues to assess the impacts of policy interventions, identify emerging issues and ensure economic evidence informs decision-making.
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Play a key role in the Treasurys contribution to fiscal events and wider strategic work, engage with stakeholders across government and externally, and help strengthen the departments evidence base on labour market issues.
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As a senior member of the branch, you will also help support its leadership, develop analytical capability and contribute to delivering high-quality analysis and advice across a broad portfolio of labour market issues.
Economic adviser, supply-side growth (G7)
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Lead HMTs analysis of the supply-side of the economy and productivity growth, providing timely advice to Ministers and senior officials. Provide key briefing on productivity data and productivity statistics releases. Lead on impactful and fast-paced analysis at the budget.
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Lead and deliver the annual review of the supply side of the economy, working closely with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and bringing together analysis across HM Treasury, the resto of government, and the Bank of England.
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Deliver regular impactful assessments of the output gap (the balance of supply and demand in the economy) bringing together evidence from across Economics Group to reach an assessment of whether there is excess demand or slack in the economy. This assessment is vital to informing overall fiscal and macroeconomic strategy.
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Scope and deliver high-impact proactive economic projects to improve our understanding of the supply-side of the economy and the drivers of economic growth, to support the development of growth policy and strategy.
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As a senior member of the branch, you will also help support its leadership, develop analytical capability, and contribute to delivering high-quality analysis and advice across a broad range of topics. You will provide flexible matrix management to economists in the team.
Candidate Drop-In Sessions
The hiring managers will be running candidate drop-in sessions to give you greater insight about the role and HM Treasury and ask any questions you might have. If you would like to join us, use the link below to join the call at the right time.
Thursday 13th August, 1:30pm to 2pm: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/352079610855531?p=gEtchnxVFK9bWStqZC
Thursday 20th August, 1:30pm to 2pm: https://teams.microsoft.com/meet/352079610855531?p=gEtchnxVFK9bWStqZC
If you would like to speak to the hiring managers informally prior to the closing date, please contact the relevant manager depending on which role you are interested in:
Economic Adviser (Supply side growth) Freddie Mitchell [email protected]
Economic Adviser (Labour markets) Katie Baxter [email protected]
Head of Inflation (Economic Adviser) Ellie Price [email protected]
Visa sponsorship is not available for this role.
