Salary - £40,574 to £43,056
Hybrid working (50/50)
Permanent
Closing date: 02 September 2026. We reserve the right to close this advert early if we find the right candidate, so we encourage you to apply early.
UKCEH is a leading independent research institute with over 600 scientists studying how the natural world works. We take a connected approach across land, water and air to understand environmental systems and build resilience for people and the planet.
We’re seeking a passionate and highly driven Research Scientist with strong mathematical and statistical expertise to help advance Early Warning Systems (EWS) for climate tipping points. Based within our globally recognised team in Wallingford, this role places you at the forefront of one of the most critical challenges of our time, detecting when Earth’s systems approach potentially irreversible change. Your work will directly contribute to strengthening our ability to anticipate and respond to climate risks, informing decisions at the highest levels and helping safeguard our planet’s future.
In this role, you will push the boundaries of climate science by developing and applying nonlinear dynamical systems models to understand the behaviour of key Earth system components. You’ll calibrate these models against real-world climate observations and evaluate them alongside state-of-the-art Earth System Models, while also translating abstract model behaviour into real-world meaning - linking critical thresholds in your models to human-driven climate forcing such as rising greenhouse gas concentrations. At the heart of your work lies a profound challenge: using these dynamical systems models in tandem with statistics to reduc e uncertainty and build more accurate E arly Warning Systems . Such systems will help the world better anticipate when tipping points may be crossed despite the inherent variability and complexity of the climate system.
In this role, you won’t just contribute to research, you’ll be immersed in a fast-moving, high-profile programme at the forefront of climate science. You’ll collaborate with prestigious partners including the Universities of Exeter and Leicester, the Met Office , the European Space Agency and the Advanced Research and Invention Agency , bringing together diverse expertise to tackle one of the most complex challenges in environmental science .
Your work will span dynamic, high-impact projects, from assessing the resilience of rainforests and dryland ecosystems to exploring shifts in ocean circulation through the ESA-funded PREDICT and ARIA-funded Forecasting Tipping Points programme s . Along the way, you’ll work alongside internationally recognised experts and prolific researchers, gaining exposure to cutting-edge approaches, rich Earth Observation datasets, climate models and a breadth of ideas rarely found in traditional research roles.
You’ll also have the opportunity to contribute to the future direction of the programme, including supporting the development of funding proposals and shaping new research ideas. It’s a unique opportunity to be part of something ambitious, collaborative and truly influential - shaping science that matters right now.
Your main responsibilities will include:
Evaluating both dynamical systems and full Earth System Models (ESMs) against real-world observations, including multisensor and multiphysics Earth Observation datasets, while rigorously quantifying uncertainty .
The overarching aim of this role is to develop accurate and reliable Early Warning Systems for climate tipping points. These systems must strike a careful balance - delivering the smallest possible uncertainty bounds while transparently accounting for the inherent variability and complexity of the climate system. In doing so, you will build a distinctive and impactful research profile, contributing to a strong portfolio of outputs including peer-reviewed publications, stakeholder reports, and the release of datasets and models. You will also share your insights with the wider community through presentations at conferences and workshops.
A key aspect of the role will involve developing a deep understanding of the priorities and expectations of major funders, including the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA), ensuring your work remains aligned with high-impact, strategically important research. Project l inks below:
ESA: https://climate.esa.int/en/tipping-points-research/predict-predicting-resilience-and-early-detection-of-impending-climate-transitions/
ARIA: https://aria.org.uk/opportunity-spaces/scoping-our-planet/forecasting-tipping-points
We are looking for a good communicator who is confident building relationships and translating complex technical concepts for diverse audiences. You will collaborate across ESA and ARIA work packages, working closely with colleagues across UKCEH and external partners. You’ll also contribute to professional networks, events, and organisation-wide initiatives—playing an active role in a collaborative and outward-facing research environment.
This is an exciting opportunity to apply your quantitative and analytical skills to help ensure a safer future for society as global warming continues. Your work will advance cutting-edge dynamical systems and their application to climatological science, directly informing policy and aiding governments in planning for the profound societal and environmental impacts should the world approach a range of tipping points.
This role will particularly suit someone with a genuine passion for climate science and a curiosity to explore complex systems in depth - someone who values rigour, follows robust scientific processes, and is committed to transparency and reproducibility in their work.
How to apply and what happens next
If you’re interested in this role, we’d love to hear from you. You’ll be directed to our Workday portal where you’ll create an account and upload your CV and your responses to the questions below. Your responses are an important part of our assessment process, so please take the time to complete them thoughtfully:
Use clear, concise examples that demonstrate your personal contribution, relevant skills, qualifications (if applicable ) and impact
Once submitted , our panel will review your application, and please be assured that we are committed to providing an outcome for all applicants, regardless of the result.
Q1. Describe a project where you used mathematical, statistical, or computational modelling to solve a real-world problem. What was your approach and impact?
Q2 . Give an example of working with observational data to evaluate or improve a model. How did you handle uncertainty or data limitations?
Q3 . Describe a time you communicated complex technical work to different audiences and built effective collaborations.
Working at UKCEH is genuinely rewarding
You’ll be joining a leading independent, not-for-profit research institute, where your work will have real impact. Our science helps people and the environment to prosper and informs decisions that benefit society as a whole .
We’re proud to be custodians of over 60 years of environmental data, and just as proud of the people behind it. You’ll be supported to develop your career, grow your skills and thrive in a collaborative, purpose-driven environment.
At UKCEH, we recognise your dedication and provide a comprehensive benefits package designed to support you both at work and at home. When you join us, you’ll benefit from:
Employee Assistance Programme and health benefits, including 24/7 support with remote GP access, mental health, physiotherapy and lifestyle services
Our Commitment to i nclusion
At UKCEH, we believe everyone should feel welcome and able to be themselves at work. We warmly encourage applications from people of all backgrounds, experiences and identities. As a Disability Confident employer, we’re happy to support you with any adjustments you may need throughout the recruitment process.
Please note: Unfortunately, we are unable to offer visa sponsorship for this role and this does not qualify for endorsement to support a Global Talent Visa application. If you are considering pursuing self-sponsorship, please indicate this in your application so we can take it into account during the recruitment process.
